Russia’s ability to convert its expanding diplomatic engagement with African countries into sustainable economic benefits and reliable security partnerships remains uncertain, Martin Minns, Co-Executive Producer of Pan-Africa podcast Panel 54, has said.
Minns stated this in an article titled “Can Russia Reach the Summit of Its Ambitions in Africa?”, which examined the outcomes of the third Russia-Africa Summit held in Moscow on October 28 and 29, 2026.
He noted that although 22 African heads of state attended the summit, an increase from 17 at the second edition in St Petersburg in 2023, the figure remained below the 43 leaders who participated in the inaugural summit in Sochi in 2019.
According to him, the Kremlin attributed the lower attendance to what it described as excessive pressure from Western countries.
However, Minns argued that the more critical issue was whether African countries had secured tangible benefits from their engagements with Moscow and whether the discussions would translate into lasting partnerships.
He observed that Russia’s involvement in Africa had expanded in recent years, particularly in diplomacy, defence and security, but its economic contributions remained relatively limited.
Minns identified Russia’s major interests in Africa as countering Western influence, strengthening relations with non-aligned countries, gaining access to mineral resources and expanding its defence exports.
He said Russian investment accounted for less than one per cent of foreign direct investment into Africa, a figure that highlights the relatively small scale of its economic contribution compared with the United States, Europe and China.
On defence cooperation, Minns noted that Russia’s global arms exports declined by 64 per cent between 2021 and 2025, although it remained Africa’s third-largest supplier of major arms during the period, behind the United States and China.
He also raised concerns over the outcomes of Russia’s growing security involvement in the Sahel, noting that the region had continued to experience increasing violence despite Moscow’s interventions.
According to him, annual deaths linked to violent extremism in the Sahel rose from an average of 927 between 2016 and 2019 to 10,470 between 2022 and 2025.
Minns attributed Russia’s challenges in sustaining its security commitments partly to the financial and military pressures arising from its ongoing war in Ukraine.
He further expressed concern over reports of Africans being recruited to fight in the conflict, describing the development as damaging to Russia’s image across the continent.
Citing an Afrobarometer survey conducted across 38 African countries in 2024 and 2025, he said perceptions of Russian influence were less positive than those of the United States, the European Union and China.
He added that 72 per cent of respondents who were aware of the Ukraine war wanted their countries to remain neutral in the conflict.
The article also referenced an October 2026 report by Hague-based Journalists for Justice, titled “The Death Contract: How Russia Recruits Africans to Fight and Die in Ukraine.”
The report documented 3,034 African citizens from 40 countries allegedly recruited into the Russian armed forces, often through deception and promises of civilian employment.
Minns welcomed an agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kenyan President William Ruto to designate Kenya as a non-source country for recruitment into the Russian military.
He, however, stressed that effective implementation would be necessary to prevent recruitment networks from exploiting alternative channels.
He also cited a Bloomberg report indicating that Moscow was expanding its recruitment activities in other African countries, including Zimbabwe, Burundi and Sierra Leone.
On Africa’s diplomatic relations with Moscow, Minns explained that many African governments were pursuing diversified non-alignment policies, engaging different international partners to advance their economic, security and diplomatic interests.
He said Russia’s ability to fulfil its commitments to African countries remained constrained by the ongoing Ukraine war, which continued to consume significant material and political resources.
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According to him, Russia’s future standing as a partner in Africa would depend largely on its ability to deliver sustained economic benefits, dependable security cooperation and measurable outcomes for countries across the continent.
Minns added that the Moscow summit demonstrated the scale of Russia’s ambitions in Africa, but the implementation of agreements and commitments would ultimately determine the extent of its influence.
“Talk is cheap,” he said.
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