Sub-Saharan Africa’s inability to capture greater value from its natural resources has been highlighted by a widening export gap with China, as the region recorded $33.7 billion in goods exports to the United States in 2025, compared with China’s $308 billion to $309 billion.
The figures show that China exported approximately nine times the value of goods shipped by sub-Saharan African countries to the American market, underscoring the continent’s limited manufacturing capacity and continued dependence on raw materials and agricultural commodities.
The disparity persisted despite a nearly 30 per cent decline in US imports from China following the tariff dispute between Washington and Beijing, according to an analysis by Brian Muloni, a Senior Finance Business Partner based in Nairobi.
Muloni argued that the gap was not necessarily evidence of Africa’s inability to compete but reflected an international trade structure that allows manufacturing economies to capture more value from resources sourced from developing countries.
“This is not a story about Africa’s failure to compete. It is a story about the architecture of global trade,” he said.
According to the analysis, sub-Saharan Africa’s exports to the US increased by 12.2 per cent in 2025 compared with the previous year, providing market opportunities for agricultural producers, including cocoa farmers in Côte d’Ivoire and coffee growers in Ethiopia.
However, the growth has not significantly changed the continent’s position in global trade, as most of its exports remain concentrated in commodities with limited local processing.
Agricultural products, including cocoa, coffee, cashew nuts, spices and tropical fruits, account for a significant share of US imports from the region.
Sub-Saharan Africa reportedly supplies about 80 per cent of US agricultural imports from the continent, valued at approximately $4.66 billion.
Muloni noted that although these products enjoy demand in the American market because of their climatic and geographical uniqueness, their prices are largely determined by international commodity markets, while much of the processing and higher-value commercial activities take place outside Africa.
A breakdown of exports showed that South Africa accounted for nearly half of the region’s shipments to the US, valued at $16.5 billion, largely from precious metals, vehicles and machinery.
Nigeria followed with $5 billion, with crude oil accounting for the overwhelming majority of its exports to the American market.
Ghana recorded $1.2 billion, including cocoa preparations worth more than $739 million, while Kenya exported $862 million, mainly apparel and coffee.
Zambia recorded $321 million, driven largely by copper, while Zimbabwe exported goods worth $79.8 million, primarily tobacco and sugar.
The analysis illustrated Africa’s limited participation in higher-value production through examples of Ghanaian cocoa processed into chocolate in Belgium, rough diamonds from Botswana polished and marketed in Antwerp, and Nigerian crude oil exported abroad before refined petroleum products are shipped back to African markets.
In contrast, China’s exports to the US were dominated by manufactured products, including electronics, machinery, furniture, apparel and other consumer goods.
Muloni attributed China’s manufacturing advantage to four decades of integration into global supply chains, which enabled the country to establish large-scale production networks and become a major supplier to American businesses and consumers.
He noted that the value of China’s electronics exports alone exceeded sub-Saharan Africa’s entire annual export relationship with the US.
According to him, the American market’s dependence on Chinese goods reflects their affordability and availability, while its trade relationship with Africa is largely driven by commodities that cannot easily be produced domestically.
“America needs Chinese goods because they are cheap and abundant. It needs African goods because they are geographically and climatically unique,” he said.
On the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), Muloni acknowledged its importance in providing African exporters access to the American market, generating foreign exchange and supporting businesses across the continent.
However, he maintained that the $33.7 billion export figure remained insufficient to meet Africa’s economic ambitions, arguing that access to foreign markets alone would not deliver the desired economic transformation without stronger domestic manufacturing and processing capacity.
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He said the continent must move beyond exporting unprocessed commodities and invest in industries capable of transforming its agricultural produce, minerals and other natural resources into finished products.
The analysis ended that Africa’s ability to retain more economic value from its resources through local processing, industrialisation and manufacturing would be critical to improving its competitiveness and securing a stronger position in global trade.
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